WPUFD4
2026-M09 / rising
1.11%
Latest value 159.613. Public BLS series, not a company-specific input-cost forecast.
Analytics
Why did the score move?
This page separates score drivers, public trends, model caveats, and data freshness so users can inspect the signal before accepting a recommendation.
Score explainability
Why the top state moved into the action queue
The score is a capped public-data triage model. It is designed to rank review priority, not to forecast production, sales, or customer demand.
Top driver
weather
North Carolina / score 87
Top-state score waterfall
Weather 29.36
Demand 21.12
Facility/compliance 13.84
Cost 6
scoreMomentum 10.2
regionalConcentration 6.93
confidencePenalty 0
risk = 0.30 weather + 0.22 demand + 0.15 facility + 0.12 cost + 0.12 momentum + 0.09 regional concentration - confidence penalty
Primary driver distribution
weather 37 states
construction demand 11 states
facility/compliance 3 states
Driver labels explain relative score pressure. They do not imply causality or certainty.
Cost analytics
BLS producer-price movement
WPUFD411
2026-M09 / rising
1.12%
Latest value 159.496. Public BLS series, not a company-specific input-cost forecast.
Climate probe
NCDC station observations
Recent avg max: 24.44C
Prior avg max: 22.02C
Recent precip: 1.6 mm
Station: GHCND:USW00014819
Live providers
4
Cached providers
3
Construction demand context
Census BPS state permit units
Public building-permit units help show where construction activity may be more relevant to downstream wood panel, adhesive, and resin demand. This is context, not a sales forecast.
Period
202604
Total units
129,361
Multifamily
44,903
Texas
16,572
Multifamily 3,474 units
Florida
14,596
Multifamily 4,612 units
North Carolina
9,889
Multifamily 3,880 units
California
9,015
Multifamily 3,147 units
Georgia
6,458
Multifamily 2,389 units
Tennessee
4,480
Multifamily 1,490 units
South Carolina
4,452
Multifamily 762 units
Ohio
4,341
Multifamily 2,599 units
What changed since last build
Top state changed to North Carolina
Action score increased by 0 points. NOAA active alerts changed by 123. Public facility clusters changed by 15. Census BPS permit units changed by 0. Top state changed from Texas to North Carolina.
Snapshot count
Ready
Action delta
0
Alert delta
123
Permit delta
0
Top movers
| State | Score | Delta | Alerts | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 80 | 33 | 22 (22) | Escalate regional operations review |
| South Carolina | 83 | 33 | 7 (7) | Escalate regional operations review |
| Georgia | 83 | 29 | 4 (4) | Escalate regional operations review |
| Virginia | 71 | 29 | 3 (3) | Investigate score drivers and source freshness |
| Missouri | 38 | -27 | 0 (-35) | Monitor freight and demand signals |
| North Carolina | 87 | 25 | 15 (14) | Escalate regional operations review |
| West Virginia | 59 | 25 | 2 (2) | Investigate score drivers and source freshness |
| North Dakota | 32 | -24 | 0 (-6) | Monitor freight and demand signals |
History
Generated build snapshots
10/29/2026, 1:50:01 PM
North Carolina
Act now / 96
Hash 4de2d18baf877de3
6/8/2026, 2:54:09 AM
Texas
Act now / 96
Hash 6007a05171bff233
6/7/2026, 9:12:25 PM
Texas
Act now / 96
Hash 2f7b840fef0a1207
6/7/2026, 7:45:22 PM
Texas
Act now / 92
Hash 312222869ae560ac
6/7/2026, 7:12:26 PM
Texas
Act now / 96
Hash 5785d0e9f46bea99
6/7/2026, 7:07:07 PM
Texas
Act now / 96
Hash f997533ab7b5bd1f
6/7/2026, 7:05:33 PM
Texas
Act now / 96
Hash 6e116b8fd71d56df
6/7/2026, 7:01:07 PM
Texas
Act now / 96
Hash 206ec176fdd560ba
Model cards
How the analytics should be trusted
State action score
Rank states for operating review using public signals.
Formula
risk = 0.30 weather + 0.22 demand + 0.15 facility + 0.12 cost + 0.12 momentum + 0.09 regional concentration - confidence penalty
Inputs
- NOAA/NWS active alerts
- BLS cost movement
- public facility/compliance context
- regional modifier
Limitations
- State-level triage only
- Not a facility-level forecast
- Public-data latency varies by source
Source health
Show whether the current build is relying on live or cached public data.
Formula
live provider count, cached provider count, and audit manifest hashes
Inputs
- live-bundle.json
- audit-manifest.json
Limitations
- A live connection does not guarantee the source has new observations
- cached-valid means the latest fetch failed but a prior public payload is still being used transparently
BLS cost pressure
Show latest public producer-price movement for tracked cost series.
Formula
latest BLS point versus prior point and trailing series direction
Inputs
- BLS public API time-series data
Limitations
- BLS series are proxies and may not map one-to-one to resin or wood-panel costs
NCDC climate probe
Show recent public station observations for weather context.
Formula
recent daily TMAX/TMIN/PRCP values from a documented station
Inputs
- NOAA NCDC / NCEI GHCND station observations
Limitations
- Single-station probe until regional station coverage is expanded
Public facility/compliance context
Add public industrial footprint context for priority states.
Formula
public chemical-sector facility rows and map clusters by state, capped in the state score
Inputs
- EPA ECHO public get_facilities
- EPA ECHO public get_map
Limitations
- Clusters are public compliance-context signals, not production capacity or company exposure
Census construction-demand context
Show where public building-permit units may indicate downstream construction activity relevant to wood panels and adhesives.
Formula
state permit units normalized against the current public BPS state file, capped as a small score component
Inputs
- U.S. Census Building Permits Survey state monthly file
Limitations
- Permits are demand context, not guaranteed starts, completions, resin demand, or company sales
Source trust
Public data freshness and usability
`cached-valid` means the latest fetch failed but a prior public payload is still used and disclosed. Missing sources are not allowed to create unsupported claims.
Live 4 Cached-valid 1 Stale 0 Missing 2
NOAA / National Weather Service
nws
Used: 2026-10-29T13:49:46.022Z
public/data/live/nws.json
NOAA NCDC / NCEI Climate Data Online
ncdc
Used: 2026-10-29T13:49:30.339Z
public/data/live/ncdc.json
U.S. Census Bureau
census
Used: 2026-10-29T13:49:46.230Z
public/data/live/census.json
FRED
fred
Used: 2026-10-29T13:49:46.308Z
BLS
bls
Used: 2026-10-29T13:49:46.308Z
public/data/live/bls.json
EIA
eia
Used: 2026-10-29T13:49:46.764Z
EPA ECHO
epa-echo
Used: 2026-10-29T13:50:00.249Z
public/data/live/epa-echo.json