Previous score
42
South
Virginia
Investigate score drivers and source freshness
Top driver
weather (25.13)
Next action
Commercial / Procurement
Decision horizon
0-72 hours
Decision state
71
Investigate
Confidence 83 / Time horizon 0-72 hours
What to do next
Review Why, verify Trust, then open the Brief if the recommendation is ready to share.
Score delta
29
Alert delta
3
Previous status
Watch
Meeting-ready action
Virginia: Investigate at score 71
Recommended action: Investigate score drivers and source freshness. Primary driver: weather. Evidence includes 3 active NOAA alerts; Max severity: Moderate; Cost delta: 1.11%; Public facility records: 0.
Owner
Commercial / Procurement
Exposure
Energy and inputs
NOAA alerts
3
Max severity
Moderate
Public facility records
0
Facility clusters
0
Census permit units
3,375
Multifamily units
1,525
Score breakdown
Weather pressure 25.13
Census construction demand 16.59
Facility/compliance context 6.44
Cost pressure 6
Score momentum 10.2
Regional concentration 6.93
Confidence penalty 0
risk = 0.30 weather + 0.22 demand + 0.15 facility + 0.12 cost + 0.12 momentum + 0.09 regional concentration - confidence penalty
Statistical model detail
Weather
pctl 77 / z 48.563
25.13
Construction demand
pctl 79 / z 1.242
16.59
Facility/compliance
pctl 40 / z 0
6.44
Cost pressure
pctl 50 / z 0
6
Momentum
pctl 93 / z 1.169
10.2
Regional concentration
pctl 84 / z 0.674
6.93
Evidence
3 active NOAA alerts
Max severity: Moderate
Cost delta: 1.11%
Public facility records: 0
Census BPS permit units: 3375
4 live and 1 cached-valid public sources
Source refs
nwsblsepa-echocensuslive-bundle
Weather tab
3 active NOAA alerts with max severity Moderate.
Cost tab
Current BLS cost delta used by the model: 1.1137%.
Facility context tab
Public EPA ECHO facility/compliance context includes 0 records and 0 map clusters.
Demand tab
Census BPS period 202604 shows 3,375 authorized permit units. This is construction context, not a sales forecast.
State action queue
| State | Score | Status | Owner | Action | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina South | 87 | Act | Commercial / Procurement | Escalate regional operations review | 15 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: Moderate |
| Texas South | 84 | Act | Commercial / Procurement | Escalate regional operations review | 4 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: Severe |
| Georgia South | 83 | Act | Commercial / Procurement | Escalate regional operations review | 4 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: Moderate |
| South Carolina South | 83 | Act | Commercial / Procurement | Escalate regional operations review | 7 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: Moderate |
| Florida South | 80 | Act | Commercial / Procurement | Escalate regional operations review | 22 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: Severe |
| Maryland South | 62 | Investigate | Commercial / Procurement | Investigate score drivers and source freshness | 2 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: Moderate |
| West Virginia South | 59 | Investigate | Commercial / Procurement | Investigate score drivers and source freshness | 2 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: Moderate |
| Tennessee South | 56 | Watch | Commercial / Procurement | Watch regional signal movement | 0 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: None |