Previous score
62
South
North Carolina
Escalate regional operations review
Top driver
weather (29.36)
Next action
Commercial / Procurement
Decision horizon
0-72 hours
Decision state
87
Act
Confidence 88 / Time horizon 0-72 hours
What to do next
Review Why, verify Trust, then open the Brief if the recommendation is ready to share.
Score delta
25
Alert delta
14
Previous status
Investigate
Meeting-ready action
North Carolina: Act at score 87
Recommended action: Escalate regional operations review. Primary driver: weather. Evidence includes 15 active NOAA alerts; Max severity: Moderate; Cost delta: 1.11%; Public facility records: 352.
Owner
Commercial / Procurement
Exposure
Energy and inputs
NOAA alerts
15
Max severity
Moderate
Public facility records
352
Facility clusters
352
Census permit units
9,889
Multifamily units
3,880
Score breakdown
Weather pressure 29.36
Census construction demand 21.12
Facility/compliance context 13.84
Cost pressure 6
Score momentum 10.2
Regional concentration 6.93
Confidence penalty 0
risk = 0.30 weather + 0.22 demand + 0.15 facility + 0.12 cost + 0.12 momentum + 0.09 regional concentration - confidence penalty
Statistical model detail
Weather
pctl 97 / z 109.268
29.36
Construction demand
pctl 97 / z 5.241
21.12
Facility/compliance
pctl 89 / z 237.421
13.84
Cost pressure
pctl 50 / z 0
6
Momentum
pctl 93 / z 1.169
10.2
Regional concentration
pctl 84 / z 0.674
6.93
Evidence
15 active NOAA alerts
Max severity: Moderate
Cost delta: 1.11%
Public facility records: 352
Census BPS permit units: 9889
4 live and 1 cached-valid public sources
Source refs
nwsblsepa-echocensuslive-bundle
Weather tab
15 active NOAA alerts with max severity Moderate.
Cost tab
Current BLS cost delta used by the model: 1.1137%.
Facility context tab
Public EPA ECHO facility/compliance context includes 352 records and 352 map clusters.
Demand tab
Census BPS period 202604 shows 9,889 authorized permit units. This is construction context, not a sales forecast.
State action queue
| State | Score | Status | Owner | Action | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas South | 84 | Act | Commercial / Procurement | Escalate regional operations review | 4 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: Severe |
| Georgia South | 83 | Act | Commercial / Procurement | Escalate regional operations review | 4 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: Moderate |
| South Carolina South | 83 | Act | Commercial / Procurement | Escalate regional operations review | 7 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: Moderate |
| Florida South | 80 | Act | Commercial / Procurement | Escalate regional operations review | 22 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: Severe |
| Virginia South | 71 | Investigate | Commercial / Procurement | Investigate score drivers and source freshness | 3 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: Moderate |
| Maryland South | 62 | Investigate | Commercial / Procurement | Investigate score drivers and source freshness | 2 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: Moderate |
| West Virginia South | 59 | Investigate | Commercial / Procurement | Investigate score drivers and source freshness | 2 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: Moderate |
| Tennessee South | 56 | Watch | Commercial / Procurement | Watch regional signal movement | 0 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: None |