Previous score
No prior snapshot
Midwest
Ohio
Watch regional signal movement
Top driver
construction demand (17.94)
Next action
Operations
Decision horizon
1-2 weeks
Decision state
55
Watch
Confidence 80 / Time horizon 1-2 weeks
What to do next
Review Why, verify Trust, then open the Brief if the recommendation is ready to share.
Score delta
0
Alert delta
0
Previous status
Watch
Meeting-ready action
Ohio: Watch at score 55
Recommended action: Watch regional signal movement. Primary driver: construction demand. Evidence includes 0 active NOAA alerts; Max severity: None; Cost delta: 1.11%; Public facility records: 358.
Owner
Operations
Exposure
Plant uptime and freight
NOAA alerts
0
Max severity
None
Public facility records
358
Facility clusters
358
Census permit units
4,341
Multifamily units
2,599
Score breakdown
Weather pressure 9.71
Census construction demand 17.94
Facility/compliance context 14.05
Cost pressure 6
Score momentum 4.22
Regional concentration 3.1
Confidence penalty 0
risk = 0.30 weather + 0.22 demand + 0.15 facility + 0.12 cost + 0.12 momentum + 0.09 regional concentration - confidence penalty
Statistical model detail
Weather
pctl 25 / z 0
9.71
Construction demand
pctl 85 / z 1.878
17.94
Facility/compliance
pctl 91 / z 241.468
14.05
Cost pressure
pctl 50 / z 0
6
Momentum
pctl 31 / z -0.405
4.22
Regional concentration
pctl 31 / z -0.615
3.1
Evidence
0 active NOAA alerts
Max severity: None
Cost delta: 1.11%
Public facility records: 358
Census BPS permit units: 4341
4 live and 1 cached-valid public sources
Source refs
nwsblsepa-echocensuslive-bundle
Weather tab
0 active NOAA alerts with max severity None.
Cost tab
Current BLS cost delta used by the model: 1.1137%.
Facility context tab
Public EPA ECHO facility/compliance context includes 358 records and 358 map clusters.
Demand tab
Census BPS period 202604 shows 4,341 authorized permit units. This is construction context, not a sales forecast.
State action queue
| State | Score | Status | Owner | Action | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas Midwest | 62 | Investigate | Operations | Investigate score drivers and source freshness | 5 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: Moderate |
| Nebraska Midwest | 59 | Investigate | Operations | Investigate score drivers and source freshness | 4 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: Moderate |
| Iowa Midwest | 58 | Investigate | Operations | Investigate score drivers and source freshness | 2 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: Moderate |
| Minnesota Midwest | 55 | Watch | Operations | Watch regional signal movement | 1 active NOAA alert | Max severity: Moderate |
| Indiana Midwest | 52 | Watch | Operations | Watch regional signal movement | 0 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: None |
| Illinois Midwest | 49 | Watch | Operations | Watch regional signal movement | 0 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: None |
| South Dakota Midwest | 48 | Watch | Operations | Watch regional signal movement | 1 active NOAA alert | Max severity: Moderate |
| Michigan Midwest | 43 | Watch | Operations | Watch regional signal movement | 0 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: None |