Previous score
69
Midwest
Illinois
Watch regional signal movement
Top driver
facility/compliance (14.68)
Next action
Operations
Decision horizon
1-2 weeks
Decision state
49
Watch
Confidence 80 / Time horizon 1-2 weeks
What to do next
Review Why, verify Trust, then open the Brief if the recommendation is ready to share.
Score delta
-20
Alert delta
-4
Previous status
Investigate
Meeting-ready action
Illinois: Watch at score 49
Recommended action: Watch regional signal movement. Primary driver: facility/compliance. Evidence includes 0 active NOAA alerts; Max severity: None; Cost delta: 1.11%; Public facility records: 580.
Owner
Operations
Exposure
Plant uptime and freight
NOAA alerts
0
Max severity
None
Public facility records
580
Facility clusters
580
Census permit units
1,795
Multifamily units
756
Score breakdown
Weather pressure 9.71
Census construction demand 12.71
Facility/compliance context 14.68
Cost pressure 6
Score momentum 2.37
Regional concentration 3.1
Confidence penalty 0
risk = 0.30 weather + 0.22 demand + 0.15 facility + 0.12 cost + 0.12 momentum + 0.09 regional concentration - confidence penalty
Statistical model detail
Weather
pctl 25 / z 0
9.71
Construction demand
pctl 60 / z 0.203
12.71
Facility/compliance
pctl 97 / z 296.101
14.68
Cost pressure
pctl 50 / z 0
6
Momentum
pctl 13 / z -0.989
2.37
Regional concentration
pctl 31 / z -0.615
3.1
Evidence
0 active NOAA alerts
Max severity: None
Cost delta: 1.11%
Public facility records: 580
Census BPS permit units: 1795
4 live and 1 cached-valid public sources
Source refs
nwsblsepa-echocensuslive-bundle
Weather tab
0 active NOAA alerts with max severity None.
Cost tab
Current BLS cost delta used by the model: 1.1137%.
Facility context tab
Public EPA ECHO facility/compliance context includes 580 records and 580 map clusters.
Demand tab
Census BPS period 202604 shows 1,795 authorized permit units. This is construction context, not a sales forecast.
State action queue
| State | Score | Status | Owner | Action | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas Midwest | 62 | Investigate | Operations | Investigate score drivers and source freshness | 5 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: Moderate |
| Nebraska Midwest | 59 | Investigate | Operations | Investigate score drivers and source freshness | 4 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: Moderate |
| Iowa Midwest | 58 | Investigate | Operations | Investigate score drivers and source freshness | 2 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: Moderate |
| Minnesota Midwest | 55 | Watch | Operations | Watch regional signal movement | 1 active NOAA alert | Max severity: Moderate |
| Ohio Midwest | 55 | Watch | Operations | Watch regional signal movement | 0 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: None |
| Indiana Midwest | 52 | Watch | Operations | Watch regional signal movement | 0 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: None |
| South Dakota Midwest | 48 | Watch | Operations | Watch regional signal movement | 1 active NOAA alert | Max severity: Moderate |
| Michigan Midwest | 43 | Watch | Operations | Watch regional signal movement | 0 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: None |