Previous score
64
Midwest
Minnesota
Watch regional signal movement
Top driver
weather (21.1)
Next action
Operations
Decision horizon
0-72 hours
Decision state
55
Watch
Confidence 81 / Time horizon 0-72 hours
What to do next
Review Why, verify Trust, then open the Brief if the recommendation is ready to share.
Score delta
-9
Alert delta
-6
Previous status
Investigate
Meeting-ready action
Minnesota: Watch at score 55
Recommended action: Watch regional signal movement. Primary driver: weather. Evidence includes 1 active NOAA alert; Max severity: Moderate; Cost delta: 1.11%; Public facility records: 0.
Owner
Operations
Exposure
Plant uptime and freight
NOAA alerts
1
Max severity
Moderate
Public facility records
0
Facility clusters
0
Census permit units
2,408
Multifamily units
1,096
Score breakdown
Weather pressure 21.1
Census construction demand 14.26
Facility/compliance context 6.44
Cost pressure 6
Score momentum 3.64
Regional concentration 3.1
Confidence penalty 0
risk = 0.30 weather + 0.22 demand + 0.15 facility + 0.12 cost + 0.12 momentum + 0.09 regional concentration - confidence penalty
Statistical model detail
Weather
pctl 59 / z 16.188
21.1
Construction demand
pctl 68 / z 0.606
14.26
Facility/compliance
pctl 40 / z 0
6.44
Cost pressure
pctl 50 / z 0
6
Momentum
pctl 25 / z -0.585
3.64
Regional concentration
pctl 31 / z -0.615
3.1
Evidence
1 active NOAA alert
Max severity: Moderate
Cost delta: 1.11%
Public facility records: 0
Census BPS permit units: 2408
4 live and 1 cached-valid public sources
Source refs
nwsblsepa-echocensuslive-bundle
Weather tab
1 active NOAA alert with max severity Moderate.
Cost tab
Current BLS cost delta used by the model: 1.1137%.
Facility context tab
Public EPA ECHO facility/compliance context includes 0 records and 0 map clusters.
Demand tab
Census BPS period 202604 shows 2,408 authorized permit units. This is construction context, not a sales forecast.
State action queue
| State | Score | Status | Owner | Action | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas Midwest | 62 | Investigate | Operations | Investigate score drivers and source freshness | 5 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: Moderate |
| Nebraska Midwest | 59 | Investigate | Operations | Investigate score drivers and source freshness | 4 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: Moderate |
| Iowa Midwest | 58 | Investigate | Operations | Investigate score drivers and source freshness | 2 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: Moderate |
| Ohio Midwest | 55 | Watch | Operations | Watch regional signal movement | 0 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: None |
| Indiana Midwest | 52 | Watch | Operations | Watch regional signal movement | 0 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: None |
| Illinois Midwest | 49 | Watch | Operations | Watch regional signal movement | 0 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: None |
| South Dakota Midwest | 48 | Watch | Operations | Watch regional signal movement | 1 active NOAA alert | Max severity: Moderate |
| Michigan Midwest | 43 | Watch | Operations | Watch regional signal movement | 0 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: None |