Previous score
No prior snapshot
Northeast
Pennsylvania
Watch regional signal movement
Top driver
weather (21.1)
Next action
Commercial / EHS
Decision horizon
0-72 hours
Decision state
57
Watch
Confidence 81 / Time horizon 0-72 hours
What to do next
Review Why, verify Trust, then open the Brief if the recommendation is ready to share.
Score delta
0
Alert delta
0
Previous status
Watch
Meeting-ready action
Pennsylvania: Watch at score 57
Recommended action: Watch regional signal movement. Primary driver: weather. Evidence includes 1 active NOAA alert; Max severity: Moderate; Cost delta: 1.11%; Public facility records: 0.
Owner
Commercial / EHS
Exposure
Demand and compliance
NOAA alerts
1
Max severity
Moderate
Public facility records
0
Facility clusters
0
Census permit units
2,483
Multifamily units
1,145
Score breakdown
Weather pressure 21.1
Census construction demand 14.61
Facility/compliance context 6.44
Cost pressure 6
Score momentum 7.8
Regional concentration 1.46
Confidence penalty 0
risk = 0.30 weather + 0.22 demand + 0.15 facility + 0.12 cost + 0.12 momentum + 0.09 regional concentration - confidence penalty
Statistical model detail
Weather
pctl 59 / z 16.188
21.1
Construction demand
pctl 70 / z 0.655
14.61
Facility/compliance
pctl 40 / z 0
6.44
Cost pressure
pctl 50 / z 0
6
Momentum
pctl 69 / z 0.45
7.8
Regional concentration
pctl 10 / z -1.433
1.46
Evidence
1 active NOAA alert
Max severity: Moderate
Cost delta: 1.11%
Public facility records: 0
Census BPS permit units: 2483
4 live and 1 cached-valid public sources
Source refs
nwsblsepa-echocensuslive-bundle
Weather tab
1 active NOAA alert with max severity Moderate.
Cost tab
Current BLS cost delta used by the model: 1.1137%.
Facility context tab
Public EPA ECHO facility/compliance context includes 0 records and 0 map clusters.
Demand tab
Census BPS period 202604 shows 2,483 authorized permit units. This is construction context, not a sales forecast.
State action queue
| State | Score | Status | Owner | Action | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vermont Northeast | 47 | Watch | Commercial / EHS | Watch regional signal movement | 1 active NOAA alert | Max severity: Moderate |
| New York Northeast | 44 | Watch | Commercial / EHS | Watch regional signal movement | 0 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: None |
| New Jersey Northeast | 42 | Watch | Commercial / EHS | Watch regional signal movement | 0 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: None |
| Maine Northeast | 37 | Monitor | Commercial / EHS | Track demand and compliance shifts | 0 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: None |
| Massachusetts Northeast | 37 | Monitor | Commercial / EHS | Track demand and compliance shifts | 0 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: None |
| Connecticut Northeast | 36 | Monitor | Commercial / EHS | Track demand and compliance shifts | 0 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: None |
| New Hampshire Northeast | 35 | Monitor | Commercial / EHS | Track demand and compliance shifts | 0 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: None |
| Rhode Island Northeast | 33 | Monitor | Commercial / EHS | Track demand and compliance shifts | 0 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: None |