Previous score
No prior snapshot
Northeast
New York
Watch regional signal movement
Top driver
construction demand (15.36)
Next action
Commercial / EHS
Decision horizon
1-2 weeks
Decision state
44
Watch
Confidence 80 / Time horizon 1-2 weeks
What to do next
Review Why, verify Trust, then open the Brief if the recommendation is ready to share.
Score delta
0
Alert delta
0
Previous status
Watch
Meeting-ready action
New York: Watch at score 44
Recommended action: Watch regional signal movement. Primary driver: construction demand. Evidence includes 0 active NOAA alerts; Max severity: None; Cost delta: 1.11%; Public facility records: 0.
Owner
Commercial / EHS
Exposure
Demand and compliance
NOAA alerts
0
Max severity
None
Public facility records
0
Facility clusters
0
Census permit units
2,746
Multifamily units
1,824
Score breakdown
Weather pressure 9.71
Census construction demand 15.36
Facility/compliance context 6.44
Cost pressure 6
Score momentum 5.25
Regional concentration 1.46
Confidence penalty 0
risk = 0.30 weather + 0.22 demand + 0.15 facility + 0.12 cost + 0.12 momentum + 0.09 regional concentration - confidence penalty
Statistical model detail
Weather
pctl 25 / z 0
9.71
Construction demand
pctl 74 / z 0.828
15.36
Facility/compliance
pctl 40 / z 0
6.44
Cost pressure
pctl 50 / z 0
6
Momentum
pctl 42 / z -0.18
5.25
Regional concentration
pctl 10 / z -1.433
1.46
Evidence
0 active NOAA alerts
Max severity: None
Cost delta: 1.11%
Public facility records: 0
Census BPS permit units: 2746
4 live and 1 cached-valid public sources
Source refs
nwsblsepa-echocensuslive-bundle
Weather tab
0 active NOAA alerts with max severity None.
Cost tab
Current BLS cost delta used by the model: 1.1137%.
Facility context tab
Public EPA ECHO facility/compliance context includes 0 records and 0 map clusters.
Demand tab
Census BPS period 202604 shows 2,746 authorized permit units. This is construction context, not a sales forecast.
State action queue
| State | Score | Status | Owner | Action | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania Northeast | 57 | Watch | Commercial / EHS | Watch regional signal movement | 1 active NOAA alert | Max severity: Moderate |
| Vermont Northeast | 47 | Watch | Commercial / EHS | Watch regional signal movement | 1 active NOAA alert | Max severity: Moderate |
| New Jersey Northeast | 42 | Watch | Commercial / EHS | Watch regional signal movement | 0 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: None |
| Maine Northeast | 37 | Monitor | Commercial / EHS | Track demand and compliance shifts | 0 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: None |
| Massachusetts Northeast | 37 | Monitor | Commercial / EHS | Track demand and compliance shifts | 0 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: None |
| Connecticut Northeast | 36 | Monitor | Commercial / EHS | Track demand and compliance shifts | 0 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: None |
| New Hampshire Northeast | 35 | Monitor | Commercial / EHS | Track demand and compliance shifts | 0 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: None |
| Rhode Island Northeast | 33 | Monitor | Commercial / EHS | Track demand and compliance shifts | 0 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: None |