Start / Trust / National
National data trust
4 source caveats active. Open Trust before using this in a decision meeting.
live
3
cached stale
1
missing
2
cached valid
1
Trust room Proof before share
Can this recommendation be used?
Verify source freshness, model logic, evidence references, and caveats before using a recommendation in a meeting.
3
Live
3
Degraded
pass
Audit
Source readiness
Every provider used by the build
NOAA / National Weather Service
https://api.weather.gov/alerts/active
live
NOAA / National Weather Service
https://api.weather.gov/alerts/active
Last attempt:
2026-07-03T18:27:39.884Z
Last success:
2026-07-03T18:27:39.884Z
Path used:
public/data/live/nws.json
Public API. No key required.
NOAA NCDC / NCEI Climate Data Online
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/cdo-web/api/v2/data?datasetid=GHCND&stationid=GHCND:USW00014819&datatypeid=TMAX&datatypeid=TMIN&datatypeid=PRCP
cached-stale
NOAA NCDC / NCEI Climate Data Online
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/cdo-web/api/v2/data?datasetid=GHCND&stationid=GHCND:USW00014819&datatypeid=TMAX&datatypeid=TMIN&datatypeid=PRCP
Last attempt:
2026-07-03T18:27:40.251Z
Last success:
2026-06-07T01:02:50.000Z
Path used:
public/data/live/ncdc.json
Requires token in the request header. Latest live fetch unavailable: missing NCDC_API_KEY. Using auditable cached public data from public/data/live/ncdc.json.
U.S. Census Bureau
https://www2.census.gov/econ/bps/State/st2604c.txt
live
U.S. Census Bureau
https://www2.census.gov/econ/bps/State/st2604c.txt
Last attempt:
2026-07-03T18:27:40.252Z
Last success:
2026-07-03T18:27:40.252Z
Path used:
public/data/live/census.json
Public Building Permits Survey state monthly files. No key is needed for the configured BPS download path; CENSUS_API_KEY is only needed if switching back to api.census.gov endpoints.
FRED
https://api.stlouisfed.org/fred/series/observations
missing
FRED
https://api.stlouisfed.org/fred/series/observations
Last attempt:
2026-07-03T18:27:40.371Z
Last success:
n/a
Path used:
none
API key required. Live fetch unavailable and no cached public payload is available: missing FRED_API_KEY
BLS
https://download.bls.gov/pub/time.series/wp/wp.data.22.FD-ID
live
BLS
https://download.bls.gov/pub/time.series/wp/wp.data.22.FD-ID
Last attempt:
2026-07-03T18:27:40.371Z
Last success:
2026-07-03T18:27:40.371Z
Path used:
public/data/live/bls.json
Uses official public PPI FD-ID flat file by default to avoid API daily-threshold failures; BLS_API_KEY can be supplied for API mode.
EIA
https://api.eia.gov/v2/seriesid
missing
EIA
https://api.eia.gov/v2/seriesid
Last attempt:
2026-07-03T18:27:40.682Z
Last success:
n/a
Path used:
none
API key required for many requests. Live fetch unavailable and no cached public payload is available: missing EIA_API_KEY
EPA ECHO
https://echodata.epa.gov/echo/echo_rest_services.get_facilities and get_map
cached-valid
EPA ECHO
https://echodata.epa.gov/echo/echo_rest_services.get_facilities and get_map
Last attempt:
2026-07-03T18:27:40.682Z
Last success:
2026-07-03T18:21:03.970Z
Path used:
public/data/live/epa-echo.json
Public ECHO JSON endpoints. Current default query is an active SIC 28 chemical-sector cluster probe for priority manufacturing states. Latest live fetch unavailable: EPA ECHO fetch failed: 429 Too Many Requests. Using auditable cached public data from public/data/live/epa-echo.json.
Selected recommendation proof
National caveats
NOAA NCDC / NCEI Climate Data Online: NOAA NCDC / NCEI Climate Data Online is cached-stale: it should not support unsupported live-data claims.
FRED: FRED is missing: it should not support unsupported live-data claims.
EIA: EIA is missing: it should not support unsupported live-data claims.
EPA ECHO: EPA ECHO is cached-valid: the latest fetch failed, but a prior public payload is disclosed and still used.
Act
Score >= 75
Investigate
Score >= 58
Watch
Score >= 42
Monitor
Score >= 0
Formula
risk = 0.30 weather + 0.22 demand + 0.15 facility + 0.12 cost + 0.12 momentum + 0.09 regional concentration - confidence penalty
weather Pressure
30%
construction Demand
22%
facility Context
15%
cost Pressure
12%
score Momentum
12%
regional Concentration
9%
Plain-English model limits
What the score can and cannot prove
What it does: compares public state-level signals using robust percentiles, z-scores, weights, and source penalties.
What it does not do: forecast production, private demand, sales, plant status, or company-specific exposure.
Outlier control: Winsorize each component at p05/p95 before normalization.
Evidence ledger
Claims must trace to generated files
Current posture
decision-summarystate-signals
Demand context
censusanalytics
Cost movement
blsoperating-model
Public facility/compliance context
epa-echooperating-modelanalytics
Open generated-file manifest
registry (7)
fixtures/source-registry.json
sources (6)
fixtures/sources.json
marketBrief
fixtures/marketBrief.json
signals
fixtures/signals.json
stateMap (51)
fixtures/us-states-map.json
stateSignals (51)
public/data/state-signals.json
decisionSummary
public/data/decision-summary.json
stateGeometry (51)
public/data/state-geometry.geojson
operatingModel (51)
public/data/operating-model.json
historyIndex (30)
public/data/history/index.json
latestSnapshot (51)
public/data/history/latest.json
changeBrief (10)
public/data/change-brief.json
aiInsights (4)
public/data/ai-insights.json
liveBundle (7)
public/data/live-bundle.json
valueBrief (5)
public/data/value-brief.json
decisionAnalytics (51)
public/data/decision-analytics.json
reportView (51)
public/data/report-view.json
decisionTree (261)
public/data/decision-tree.json
statisticalRiskModel (51)
public/data/statistical-risk-model.json