Previous score
No prior snapshot
West
Montana
Watch regional signal movement
Top driver
weather (25.13)
Next action
Market intelligence
Decision horizon
0-72 hours
Decision state
57
Watch
Confidence 83 / Time horizon 0-72 hours
What to do next
Review Why, verify Trust, then open the Brief if the recommendation is ready to share.
Score delta
0
Alert delta
0
Previous status
Watch
Meeting-ready action
Montana: Watch at score 57
Recommended action: Watch regional signal movement. Primary driver: weather. Evidence includes 3 active NOAA alerts; Max severity: Moderate; Cost delta: 1.11%; Public facility records: 0.
Owner
Market intelligence
Exposure
Demand and logistics
NOAA alerts
3
Max severity
Moderate
Public facility records
0
Facility clusters
0
Census permit units
336
Multifamily units
145
Score breakdown
Weather pressure 25.13
Census construction demand 4.83
Facility/compliance context 6.44
Cost pressure 6
Score momentum 9.47
Regional concentration 4.88
Confidence penalty 0
risk = 0.30 weather + 0.22 demand + 0.15 facility + 0.12 cost + 0.12 momentum + 0.09 regional concentration - confidence penalty
Statistical model detail
Weather
pctl 77 / z 48.563
25.13
Construction demand
pctl 15 / z -0.757
4.83
Facility/compliance
pctl 40 / z 0
6.44
Cost pressure
pctl 50 / z 0
6
Momentum
pctl 85 / z 1.034
9.47
Regional concentration
pctl 56 / z 0
4.88
Evidence
3 active NOAA alerts
Max severity: Moderate
Cost delta: 1.11%
Public facility records: 0
Census BPS permit units: 336
4 live and 1 cached-valid public sources
Source refs
nwsblsepa-echocensuslive-bundle
Weather tab
3 active NOAA alerts with max severity Moderate.
Cost tab
Current BLS cost delta used by the model: 1.1137%.
Facility context tab
Public EPA ECHO facility/compliance context includes 0 records and 0 map clusters.
Demand tab
Census BPS period 202604 shows 336 authorized permit units. This is construction context, not a sales forecast.
State action queue
| State | Score | Status | Owner | Action | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California West | 74 | Investigate | Market intelligence | Investigate score drivers and source freshness | 9 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: Severe |
| Arizona West | 67 | Investigate | Market intelligence | Investigate score drivers and source freshness | 3 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: Severe |
| Washington West | 66 | Investigate | Market intelligence | Investigate score drivers and source freshness | 2 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: Moderate |
| Colorado West | 63 | Investigate | Market intelligence | Investigate score drivers and source freshness | 3 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: Moderate |
| New Mexico West | 61 | Investigate | Market intelligence | Investigate score drivers and source freshness | 6 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: Severe |
| Alaska West | 60 | Investigate | Market intelligence | Investigate score drivers and source freshness | 15 active NOAA alerts | Max severity: Severe |
| Hawaii West | 53 | Watch | Market intelligence | Watch regional signal movement | 1 active NOAA alert | Max severity: Severe |
| Utah West | 52 | Watch | Market intelligence | Watch regional signal movement | 1 active NOAA alert | Max severity: Unknown |