Start / Why
National driver view
Pick a state from Start or Map to focus this page. Until then, the waterfall shows the top elevated states.
53
Score
Mixed
Driver
82
Confidence
Why
Why did this state score this way?
Break down the selected state through the statistical public-data model: percentiles, robust z-scores, weights, confidence penalties, and source references.
Selected
North Carolina
Action-band movement
Top band or stable
Not near an action-band threshold.
Sensitivity interval
83-91
Sensitivity band from source caveats, weak component support, and model uncertainty. This is not a forecast interval.
Rank and caveats
#1 national / #1 regional
No model warning on the selected state.
Why this score
Why the top states are elevated
Each bar shows how public-data components add up to the action score. This is an explainability view, not a causal model.
Scores are capped public-data triage signals. They do not forecast production, sales, or private exposure.
North Carolina
Act / South
87
delta +25
Weather 29.36
nws
Construction demand 21.12
census
Facility/compliance 13.84
epa-echo
Cost 6
bls
Momentum 10.2
history
Regional concentration 6.93
state-signals
Confidence penalty 0
live-bundle
Texas
Act / South
84
delta 0
Weather 26.61
nws
Construction demand 21.12
census
Facility/compliance 14.68
epa-echo
Cost 6
bls
Momentum 8.42
history
Regional concentration 6.93
state-signals
Confidence penalty 0
live-bundle
Georgia
Act / South
83
delta +29
Weather 25.98
nws
Construction demand 19.6
census
Facility/compliance 14.68
epa-echo
Cost 6
bls
Momentum 10.2
history
Regional concentration 6.93
state-signals
Confidence penalty 0
live-bundle
North Carolina
Act / weather driver
+2
85 rising 87
Statistical model
How to read the score
The score ranks where a regional review should start. V2 winsorizes public state-level inputs, then uses robust percentiles and z-scores for weather, construction demand, public facility/compliance context, cost pressure, momentum, regional concentration, and source confidence.
risk = 0.30 weather + 0.22 demand + 0.15 facility + 0.12 cost + 0.12 momentum + 0.09 regional concentration - confidence penalty
weather Pressure 30%
construction Demand 22%
facility Context 15%
cost Pressure 12%
score Momentum 12%
regional Concentration 9%
Scenario simulator
Stress-test the current public signal state
This is an explainable assumption tool, not a forecast. It shows how the current action posture would change if public signal pressure moved.
Scenario score
96
Act now
Affected state queue
Formula: base state score + weather adjustment + cost adjustment + public facility/compliance context adjustment + Census demand adjustment - data confidence penalty, capped at 100.